What to Expect: Indiana vs. Oregon

Indiana opens Big Ten tournament play on Thursday afternoon against Oregon at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Ducks won the regular season meeting 73-64 on March 4 in Eugene.

Thursday’s game will tip at noon ET on BTN:

Winners of seven straight, Oregon enters this week’s Big Ten tournament as one of the nation’s hottest teams. Indiana, 5-2 in its last seven, is also playing well as postseason play begins.

The Ducks are a lock for the NCAA tournament, but Indiana remains on the bubble and might need a win to punch its ticket to the Big Dance. With the Big Ten tournament back in Indianapolis for the first time since 2022, the Hoosiers will have a favorable crowd as they seek a fifth Quad 1 victory.

THE FIRST MATCHUP

Indiana’s inability to secure defensive rebounds and make defensive stops late proved costly in its loss to the Ducks last week.

Oregon shot only 39.3 percent in the first matchup between the teams at Knight Arena – well below its season average of 45.5 percent – but was able to fuel its offense with second-chance points.

The Ducks grabbed 39.5 percent of their missed shots and tallied 23 second-chance points. Oregon outscored Indiana 23-13 on second-chance points. It was the highest offensive rebounding percentage allowed by Indiana since the Maryland game in late January.

Indiana also failed to get a stop at the most critical juncture of the game. Leading 64-63 with less than two minutes remaining, the Hoosiers played a stellar defensive possession until late in the shot clock. That’s when Oregon guard Jackson Shelstad hit a back-breaking 3-pointer at the 1:30 mark to push the Ducks ahead, 66-64.

Offense was also hard to come by for the Hoosiers down the stretch. IU missed 10 of its final 12 field goal attempts and scored five points over the final 8:19.

In the narrow win, Oregon also had a decided advantage from the free-throw line. The Ducks went 19-for-21 from the stripe and Indiana went 3-for-7. The significant differential in attempts led Mike Woodson to criticize the officiating in his postgame comments.

“We had our chances,” Woodson said. “But listen guys, in a physical game like this, it can’t be 21-7. You gotta be kidding me. 21-7 on f***ing free throws is bulls**t. It just can’t be, not in a physical game. They’re a physical team, and it can’t be that lopsided. It’s impossible.”

The production – or lack thereof – of Malik Reneau and Mackenzie Mgbako also hampered the Hoosiers. Mgbako shot 2-for-10 from the field and missed all of his five 2-point field goal attempts.

Reneau struggled to finish against the size and shot-blocking ability of Oregon’s Nate Bittle. Reneau had two shots blocked by Bittle and shot 4-for-11 on 2s. The duo of Reneau and Mgbako shot 6-for-22 from the floor.

TEMPO-FREE NUMBERS, KEYS TO THE GAME

(All stats in the chart above are for conference games only.)

Slow down Nate Bittle: Bittle was terrific in the first matchup in Eugene with a final stat line of 14 points, seven rebounds, six assists and four blocked shots in 30 minutes. At times, Indiana recklessly attacked Bittle at the rim, a poor strategy against one of the league’s best shot-blockers. The Hoosier bigs will need to be more selective in attacking Bittle at the rim in the rematch. Defensively, the Hoosiers did a decent job on Bittle as he went 3-of-10 from the field, but they sent him to the line eight times and he converted on every attempt.

Limit second-chance points for the Ducks: Oregon is long and athletic at almost every position and it led to a decided advantage on the glass in the first meeting. The Hoosiers must do a better job at blocking out and keeping the Ducks to one shot and out to win the rematch.

Better decisions from Ballo and Reneau: In the first matchup, Oumar Ballo turned the ball over twice and Reneau had tunnel vision on several possessions attacking the rim. With Oregon’s quickness, Ballo can’t afford to put the ball on the floor and try to dribble into a post move. He’ll be far more effective getting a seal and going quickly after the catch. With Reneau, getting the ball out of the post when the pressure comes is essential.

WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO

The KenPom projection is Oregon by two with a 42 percent chance of an IU victory. Bart Torvik’s ratings also favor the Ducks by two and gives the Hoosiers a 43 percent chance to advance.

Many of the latest NCAA tournament projections are still forecasting the Hoosiers for a trip to the First Four in Dayton. This is a game IU needs to win to feel confident about its March Madness chances. Indiana played Oregon well for more than 38 minutes in the first meeting before Shelstad’s difficult shot pushed the Ducks ahead for good.

With potential bid stealers looming and uncertainty on what the selection committee might value most when evaluating bubble teams, this is a game the Hoosiers need to get.

(Photo credit: Oregon Athletics)

Category: Commentary

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