Bracketology: NCAA tournament projection as of March 11th, 2025

  • Mar 11, 2025 8:40 am
 

Champ Week is off and running, with seven automatic bids already handed out. Most notably for bubble teams, Drake took care of business at Arch Madness and it will be Gonzaga-Saint Mary’s once again in the WCC Final, eliminating our first two chances at a bid thief. There’s still a long way to go, though.

Despite Alabama’s overtime victory at Auburn, there were no changes atop the bracket. Auburn has built such a cushion that the Tigers remain the top overall seed, although I suppose an early exit from the SEC tournament would generate some buzz about Duke potentially taking the top spot. Had Florida lost, that road win at Auburn would have vaulted the Crimson Tide up to the one line, but they remain the top two seed for now. Tennessee still has an outside shot at a one seed, but that seems less likely than it did a week ago.

Over the course of the week, there are a few sections of the bracket I want to explore a bit more. Spots 21-29, which span the entire six and seven line as well as the top eight seed, are particularly tight. That section includes a couple of the toughest teams to seed in Louisville and Memphis.

Looking ahead, my next update this week will be on Thursday morning.

Here’s a quick refresher about how the NCAA selection committee classifies wins based on the NET rating:

· Quad 1: Home vs. teams ranked 1-30 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-50 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-75
· Quad 2: Home vs. teams ranked 31-75 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 51-100 / Road vs. teams ranked 76-135
· Quad 3: Home vs. teams ranked 76-160 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 101-200 / Road vs. teams ranked 136-240
· Quad 4: Home vs. teams ranked 161-351 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 201-351 / Road vs. teams ranked 241-351

The projections below are based on all games played through March 10th, 2025. Following the bracket, I included some quick notes on the last four in and first four out.

ATLANTA (SOUTH) NEWARK (EAST)
Lexington – March 20/22 Raleigh – March 21/23
1) Auburn 1) Duke
16) American / SIUE* 16) Quinnipiac / Southern
8) Gonzaga
 8) Mississippi St.
9) Creighton 9) West Virginia
Seattle – March 21/23 Denver – March 20/22
5) Arizona
 5) Oregon
12) Ohio St. / Xavier 12) McNeese
4) Clemson 4) Wisconsin
13) Lipscomb* 13) Yale
Wichita – March 20/22 Milwaukee – March 21/23
6) UCLA 6) Ole Miss
11) Arkansas 11) UC San Diego
3) Texas A&M 3) Iowa St.
14) Northern Colorado 14) UNC-Wilmington
Cleveland – March 21/23 Cleveland – March 21/23
7) Missouri 7) Marquette
10) Baylor 10) Drake*
2) Michigan St. 2) Tennessee
15) Bryant
 15) C. Connecticut St.
SAN FRANCISCO (WEST) INDIANAPOLIS (MIDWEST)
Raleigh – March 21/23 Wichita – March 20/22
1) Florida 1) Houston
16) Norfolk St. 16) Omaha*
8) Connecticut 8) Memphis
9) New Mexico 9) Georgia
Providence – March 20/22 Seattle – March 21/23
5) Saint Mary’s 5) Michigan
12) VCU 12) Liberty
4) Purdue 4) Maryland
13) High Point* 13) Akron
Denver – March 20/22 Milwaukee – March 21/23
6) BYU 6) Illinois
11) Indiana / Oklahoma
 11) San Diego St.
3) Texas Tech 3) Kentucky
14) Utah Valley 14) Troy*
Providence – March 20/22 Lexington – March 20/22
7) Louisville 7) Kansas
10) Vanderbilt 10) Utah St.
2) St. John’s 2) Alabama
15) Robert Morris 15) Wofford*

Last Four In:

Oklahoma – This is a good time to remind everyone that the committee at least says that they do not look at conference records. That would be good news for the Sooners, who finished just 6-12 in SEC play but went 13-0 in the non-con with victories against Arizona, Louisville and Michigan on neutral courts. As a result, the resume metrics are solid, but OU does have a Q3 loss and a 12-12 mark in non-Q4 games. The Sooners picked up just their second true road win of the season at Texas on Saturday and they will look to move to a perfect 6-0 in neutral court games when they face Georgia in the SEC tournament on Wednesday.

Indiana – The Hoosiers rebounded from a tough loss at Oregon by knocking off Ohio State on Saturday, which keeps them in the field for now. They sit at just 4-12 in Q1 contests, but they have no losses outside of the top quadrant. The Hoosiers have nine wins across Q1 and Q2 and while some blowout losses earlier in the season hurt the predictive metrics, their result-based metrics average out in the low 40s, which tend to hold more weight in the selection process. IU has just two victories over teams safely in the field, which makes Thursday’s matchup with Oregon critical for their at-large hopes.

Xavier – The Musketeers feel like UNC light (more on them in a minute), as they are now just 1-8 in Q1 contests, with the lone win coming at Marquette. They have two losses outside of Q1 and are 14-10 in non-Q4 games, including home wins against UConn and Creighton. Xavier faces Marquette in their Big East tournament opener and a second win over the Golden Eagles would provide a considerable boost.

Ohio State – At 17-14, the Buckeyes are walking a dangerous tightrope after falling at Indiana. They are now just 11-14 in non-Q4 contests, which is a tough sell. A neutral court victory against Kentucky and a road win at Purdue carry a lot of weight, while the predictive metrics are all inside the top 40. The result-based metrics are lagging behind though, which means OSU cannot afford to lose to Iowa and may need to beat Illinois in the second round as well.

First Four Out:

UC Irvine – It’s tough to understand how the committee might handle the Anteaters. On the one hand, they have won 17 road/neutral games and boast a Q1A road victory to go with a 4-3 mark in the top two quadrants. On the other, UC Irvine is sub-60 in the NET with predictive metrics that average in the upper 70s. The result-based metrics are better but would still be on the fringe of what you might expect from an at-large contender. Personally, this is the kind of team I’d like to see get a shot so long as they make it to the Big West final, but I am trying to predict what the committee will do. And I’m not convinced they would give UCI the nod.

Boise State – Friday’s home loss to Colorado State puts the Broncos in a tough spot but also helps the Rams as they make a late push for an at-large. A loss in each of Q3 and Q4 along with result-based metrics that all sit outside the top 50 aren’t helping matters for Boise, but non-conference wins against Saint Mary’s and Clemson have aged extremely well. The Broncos have also knocked off Utah State and New Mexico at home, but they cannot afford a loss to San Diego State on Thursday. I also can’t help but keep the committee’s treatment of last season’s Mountain West in the back of my mind as I evaluate the league’s bubble teams.

North Carolina – The good news is that the Tar Heels have just one loss outside of Q1. The bad news is they are 1-11 in Q1 games and have only one victory against my projected field to go with a Q3 home loss to Stanford. The predictive metrics are strong relative to other bubble teams and at this point it feels like UNC needs to get to the ACC final with victories over Wake Forest and Duke in order to earn a bid.

Colorado State – The Rams have ripped off seven straight victories and are now 15-3 in their last 18 contests with the only losses coming at San Diego State, New Mexico and Utah State. CSU boasts a sweep of fellow bubbler Boise State and home wins over SDSU and Utah State, but 11 of their 22 wins fall in Q4 with a pair of losses in Q3. All of the Rams’ notable wins came during league play and all but one of the team sheet metrics rank 50th or worse, which typically doesn’t bode well for selection. The Rams will face the winner of Nevada-Fresno State on Thursday, and if they win, they’d have a chance to knock off Utah State for a second time in the semis.

Texas – The Longhorns were unable to back up their victory at Mississippi State with a home win over Oklahoma, so they remain on the outside looking in. Five Q1 wins and solid predictive metrics make the Longhorns a viable candidate, but they played a weak non-conference schedule and are an ugly 10-14 in non-Q4 games. The result-based metrics average out in the mid-50s, which means Texas needs to beat Vandy on Wednesday so they can get a shot at Texas A&M in the second round of the SEC tournament.

Conference Breakdown:

SEC (13): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Big Ten (10): Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin

Big 12 (8): Arizona, Baylor, BYU, Houston, Iowa St., Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia

Big East (5): Connecticut, Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s, Xavier

ACC (3): Clemson, Duke, Louisville

Mountain West (3): New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah State

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s

American: Memphis

Atlantic 10: VCU

America East: Bryant

Atlantic Sun: Lipscomb*

Big Sky: Northern Colorado

Big South: High Point*

Big West: UC San Diego

Colonial:

Conference USA: Liberty

Horizon: Robert Morris

Ivy: Yale

MAAC: Quinnipiac

MAC: Akron

MEAC: Norfolk State

Missouri Valley: Drake*

Northeast: Central Connecticut State

Ohio Valley: SIU-Edwardsville*

Patriot: American

Southern: Wofford*

Southland: McNeese

SWAC: Southern

Summit: Omaha*

Sun Belt: Troy*

WAC: Utah Valley

* – Automatic Bid

Follow Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops and to receive an update whenever new brackets are posted.

Category: Bracketology

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