Examining IU basketball’s NCAA tournament resume with four regular season games left

IU basketball added a significant resume win Sunday afternoon against Purdue at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. After trailing by 12 at halftime, the Hoosiers outscored the Boilermakers 48-21 in the second half to win comfortably, 73-58.

At 16-11 overall with four regular season games left, IU’s hopes to make it back to the NCAA tournament for the third time in four seasons are alive.

Here’s a closer look at the current NCAA tournament resume of the Hoosiers with four regular season games left:

Record: 16-11
Key wins: at Ohio State, at Michigan State, Purdue
Bad losses: None (all 11 of IU’s losses are in Quad 1)

According to the NCAA’s NET rankings, the Hoosiers are 4-11 in Quad 1, 3-0 in Quad 2, 5-0 in Quad 3 and 4-0 in Quad 4. As of Monday, Indiana is ranked No. 56 in the NET, up three spots following its win against Purdue.

As of Monday afternoon, Indiana ranked 54th in the BPI, 50th in KenPom and 58th in Bart Torvik in the predictive metrics used by the NCAA tournament selection committee.

According to the results-based metrics used by the NCAA tournament selection committee, Indiana is ranked 47th in wins above bubble (or WAB), 33rd in KPI and 50th in strength of record.

ESPN Analytics currently gives Indiana a 44 percent chance of making the field and Torvik’s TourneyCast gives the Hoosiers a 27.8 percent chance.

After limping to a 3-8 record in its last 11 games, Indiana is now favored in three of its next four games, according to KenPom.com. If the Hoosiers can go 3-1 in their next four, they’ll head to the Big Ten tournament in Indianapolis with plenty to play for.

KenPom gives the Hoosiers a 70 percent chance to beat Penn State on Wednesday, a 60 percent chance to win at Washington on Saturday and a 53 percent chance against Ohio State in the regular season finale. Pomeroy’s ratings give Indiana a 31 percent chance to win at Oregon on March 4.

Only one of Indiana’s last four regular-season games is projected to be in Quad 1: at Oregon.

According to the NET, the Penn State, Ohio State, and Washington games are all projected to be in Quad 2. The one game that could shift is the one against the Buckeyes, currently ranked No. 30 in the NET. If Ohio State rises into the top 30, it would be a Quad 1 contest. However, Ohio State winning games is counterintuitive for the Hoosiers, who are fighting the Buckeyes for a tournament berth.

While consistency has been an issue for Indiana all season, the Hoosiers have played well in their last four games despite a 2-2 record. Indiana had chances to win in close losses to Michigan and UCLA and resurrected its tournament hopes with the Michigan State and Purdue wins.

“We’re all playing for each other because we’re all in it together,” Trey Galloway said on Sunday following the Purdue win. “And obviously this is Coach’s last year, and we want to make it special for him. We want to make it special for everyone. This team was assembled for a reason, and we have a chance to really keep competing down the stretch to win games and put ourselves in the right position.”

Category: Media

Filed to: