What to Expect: Indiana vs. Winthrop

Indiana returns from Christmas break for its final non-conference game on Sunday at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. The Hoosiers will host Winthrop. The Eagles are 10-4.

Sunday’s game will tip at 4 p.m. ET on BTN:

Indiana will look to move to 9-0 in Bloomington this season when it hosts Winthrop on Sunday afternoon. The Eagles don’t own a win over a team ranked better than No. 217 in KenPom and are 0-3 against high-major opponents. Winthrop has played three ACC opponents – Virginia Tech, Louisville and Florida State – and lost those contests by an average of 13 points.

After struggling with Chattanooga last Saturday, Indiana was on break until Thursday for the Christmas holiday. At 9-3 overall and No. 55 in KenPom, the Hoosiers have significant work to do to get back into the NCAA tournament picture. Picked to finish second in the Big Ten in the preseason, Indiana was absent from Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology.

MEET THE EAGLES

Winthrop has four players averaging in double figures and is led by 6-foot-7 senior forward Kelton Talford. A fifth-year senior from Great Falls, South Carolina, Talford averages 14.9 points and eight rebounds while shooting 56.3 percent.

Talford has the 15th-best free throw rate (FTA/FGA) in the country at 78.4 percent, according to KenPom.com, and is 67-for-101 (66.3 percent) from the line this season.

K.J. Doucet, a 6-foot-7 senior, plays the five and is second in scoring with 14 points per game. Doucet is a threat to connect from the perimeter and is 15-for-36 (41.7 percent) on 3s in 14 games. He’s second on the team in rebounding at 5.7 per game but has also committed a team-high 33 turnovers.

A fifth-year point guard leads the backcourt in Kasen Harrison. The 6-foot-2 native of Beaumont, Texas, has dished out a team-best 46 assists and is third in scoring with 13.6 points per game. Harrison also has a terrific free throw rate (60 percent) and is 51-for-67 (76.1 percent) from the line in 14 games.

Another fifth-year senior, Nick Johnson, starts at the three with freshman Paul Jones starting at the two. Johnson is a 34 percent 3-point shooter and like Talford and Harrison, gets to the line at a high rate. Johnson has a free throw rate of 65.6 percent and is shooting 70.6 percent from the line. His 11 points per game are fourth on the roster.

Both Jones and Bryce Baker, who comes off the bench, are high-volume 3-point shooters. Jones is 25-for-81 (30.9 percent) on triples, while Baker is 30-for-86 (34.9 percent) from deep. Both players average 7.9 points per game.

Tai Hamilton, a 6-foot-10 sophomore, provides backup minutes at the five. Hamilton is shooting close to 58 percent from the field, averaging 3.2 points and 3.1 rebounds in 10 minutes per game.

Ryan Jolly and Isaiah Wilson are backups in the backcourt for coach Mark Prosser. Jolly is just a 30.4 percent 3-point shooter and Wilson isn’t a threat to shoot as he’s taken just 17 field goal attempts in 13 games.

Tommy Kamarad, a 6-foot-6 senior, has started five games and is just 5-for-30 (16.7 percent) on 3s and 8-for-18 (44.4 percent) from the free throw line.

TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW

The Eagles rank first nationally in free throw rate (FTA/FGA) at 55.1 percent. The Eagles finished first in free throw rate last season, ninth in the 2022-23 season and 26th in Prosser’s first season in 2021-22.

Through 14 games, Winthrop has attempted 153 more free throws than its opponents and has made 98 more. The Eagles are shooting 66.8 percent from the line. However, getting to the line hasn’t been a strength against high-major opponents. Winthrop had a free throw rate of just 22.4 percent against Virginia Tech, 31.4 percent against Louisville and 33.8 percent against Florida State.

Winthrop is also an above-average offensive-rebounding team at 94th nationally, per KenPom.com, and shoots 53.8 percent on 2s, which ranks 106th. The Eagles are playing the 5th fastest tempo in the country and with Indiana currently playing the 58th fastest tempo, Sunday should be an up-and-down game.

Defensively, the Eagles are turning opponents over at a high rate. Winthrop opponents commit turnovers on 21.7 percent of their possessions, which ranks 33rd in the country. The Eagles struggle on the defensive glass and have difficulty keeping their opponents from going to the free-throw line. Winthrop ranks 280th in defensive rebounding percentage and 289th in opponent free-throw rate.

WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO

The KenPom projection is Indiana by 15 with a 92 percent chance of a Hoosier victory. Bart Torvik’s ratings like Indiana by 19 with a 92 percent chance the Hoosiers prevail.

After rising to 40th in KenPom following a win against Minnesota on Dec. 9, Indiana has fallen 15 spots to No. 55 and out of most NCAA tournament projections.

While the overall record is solid at 9-3 and the Hoosiers don’t have a “bad” loss on the resume, Indiana has failed to meet preseason expectations up to this point. There’s plenty of season left to change the narrative, but Indiana will have to exhibit far more urgency and consistency than it has through its first 12 games.

Category: Commentary

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