Bracketology: NCAA tournament projection as of February 25th, 2025

  • Feb 25, 2025 11:13 am
 

With less than three weeks before Selection Sunday, there is still plenty of intrigue at the top of the bracket as well as along the cutline. We’ll get to the bubble more in the last four in/first four out section below, but the intrigue is ultimately the result of some of the least impressive tournament resumes in recent memory. On the flip side, six teams have built strong profiles and can make a legitimate case for a one seed, depending on how things go from here on out.

Auburn has separated itself from the rest of the field, and barring disaster, they have locked up a spot on the top line. The Tigers rank first in all three result-based metrics thanks to 14 Q1 victories (no one else has more than nine) and are in the top three in all of the predictive metrics.

Another subpar season from the ACC has limited Duke’s chances for high-end victories in conference play. Still, after blowing out Illinois on Saturday night, the Blue Devils moved up to the second overall seed for me. They have gaudy quality metrics, which help to make up for the fact they have just six Q1 wins, with four falling in Q1A.

Three of the other four contenders come from the SEC. Alabama got back on track by beating Kentucky at home over the weekend and they are top three in all of the result-based metrics. The Tide have nine Q1 wins and are just behind Auburn for the most Q1A victories with eight. Florida was the fourth No. 2 seed when the committee revealed its top 16 teams a couple of weeks ago and the Gators haven’t lost since. However, they are just 5-3 in the top quadrant and have the worst non-conference strength of schedule among the one-seed hopefuls. Still, that road win at Auburn holds a lot of weight. Then you have Tennessee, who was fifth overall at the reveal and has beaten Vanderbilt at home and won at Texas A&M since then. The Vols rank sixth or better in all team sheet metrics and are 9-5 in Q1 and 12-5 across the top two quadrants.

The other team in the mix is Houston. The Cougars were the last two seed during the reveal, but all they’ve done since then is go 4-0 with three wins over teams on the top four seed lines (Arizona, Iowa State, and Texas Tech), with two of those victories coming on the road. The Cougars have elite predictive metrics and are now 9-0 in true road games. Houston is 8-4 in Q1 and 16-4 across the top two quadrants, with three of those four losses coming in overtime. Monday’s win at Texas Tech pushed them onto the one line in this week’s bracket, but there will undoubtedly be more shuffling atop the seed list over the next few weeks.

Here’s a quick refresher about how the NCAA selection committee classifies wins based on the NET rating:

· Quad 1: Home vs. teams ranked 1-30 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-50 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-75
· Quad 2: Home vs. teams ranked 31-75 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 51-100 / Road vs. teams ranked 76-135
· Quad 3: Home vs. teams ranked 76-160 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 101-200 / Road vs. teams ranked 136-240
· Quad 4: Home vs. teams ranked 161-351 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 201-351 / Road vs. teams ranked 241-351

The Bracket

The projections below are based on all games played through February 24, 2025. Following the bracket, I included some quick notes on the last four in and first five out.

ATLANTA (SOUTH) NEWARK (EAST)
Lexington – March 20/22 Raleigh – March 21/23
1) Auburn 1) Duke
16) American / Southern 16) Quinnipiac / SE Missouri St.
8) Illinois
 8) Creighton
9) Gonzaga 9) Baylor
Denver – March 20/22 Seattle – March 21/23
5) Missouri
 5) Oregon
12) UC San Diego 12) Yale
4) Texas Tech 4) Arizona
13) High Point 13) Lipscomb
Milwaukee – March 21/23 Providence – March 20/22
6) Mississippi St. 6) Marquette
11) Drake 11) VCU
3) Wisconsin 3) Michigan
14) Chattanooga 14) James Madison
Wichita – March 20/22 Raleigh – March 21/23
7) UCLA 7) Louisville
10) San Diego St. 10) Vanderbilt
2) Texas A&M 2) Florida
15) Montana
 15) Norfolk St.
SAN FRANCISCO (WEST) INDIANAPOLIS (MIDWEST)
Wichita – March 20/22 Lexington – March 20/22
1) Houston 1) Alabama
16) Omaha 16) Bryant
8) BYU 8) Utah St.
9) New Mexico 9) Connecticut
Seattle – March 21/23 Denver – March 20/22
5) Clemson 5) Maryland
12) McNeese 12) Texas / Wake Forest
4) Purdue 4) Kentucky
13) Jacksonville St. 13) Akron
Providence – March 20/22 Milwaukee – March 21/23
6) Kansas 6) Saint Mary’s
11) Oklahoma
 11) Arkansas / Indiana
3) St. John’s 3) Iowa St.
14) Towson 14) Utah Valley
Cleveland – March 21/23 Cleveland – March 21/23
7) Memphis 7) Ole Miss
10) Nebraska 10) West Virginia
2) Tennessee 2) Michigan St.
15) Robert Morris 15) C. Connecticut St.

Last Four In:

Arkansas – Saturday’s home win over Mizzou gave the Razorbacks their fourth Q1A victory, which separates them from other bubble teams. Still, they are just 5-11 in the top two quadrants, which doesn’t leave much margin for error. Arkansas ranks in the Top 50 in all team sheet metrics heading into winnable games this week at home against fellow bubbler Texas and on the road at South Carolina.

Wake Forest – Saturday’s loss at NC State “only” falls in Q2, but the Deacs have now dropped two of their last three games, with both defeats coming against non-tournament teams. They rank 36th in the result-based metrics, which was enough to push them into the field for now, but they cannot afford to drop any of their three remaining home games, especially since their other remaining contest is a road tilt at Duke.

Texas – Four Q1 wins and solid predictive metrics make the Longhorns a viable candidate, but they played a weak non-conference schedule and are just 9-11 in non-Q4 games after getting blasted at South Carolina over the weekend. This week features a trip to Arkansas and a home game against Georgia.

Indiana – For full disclosure, I didn’t set out thinking IU would be in my field this week. As someone who follows the program closely, hosts an IU podcast and posts on a site that covers the team, I usually go out of my way to be tough on the Hoosiers so it doesn’t seem like there is some kind of bias or other agenda at play. So while normally a 4-11 mark in Q1 games would be tough to overcome, this year’s bubble is different. The Hoosiers have no losses outside of Q1 and they own seven wins in the top two quadrants with a 12-11 mark in non-Q4 games. Some blowout losses have hurt the predictive metrics, but they rank 43rd when you average the result-based metrics, which tend to hold more weight in the selection process. That being said, IU simply cannot afford to drop Wednesday’s home game against Penn State.

First Five Out:

Boise State – A pair of Q3 losses and result-based metrics that all sit outside the Top 50 aren’t helping matters for the Broncos, but non-conference wins over Saint Mary’s and Clemson have aged extremely well. This week presents a huge opportunity when Utah State comes to town.

Ohio State – The Buckeyes are now just two games over .500 at 15-13, which based on tournament history eliminates them from contention. They boast some great wins, but at just 9-13 in non-Q4 games, OSU is in desperate need of a few more victories down the stretch. First up is a road trip to USC this week.

North Carolina – The good news is that the Tar Heels have just one loss outside of Q1. The bad news is they are 1-10 in Q1 games and have only two victories over teams in the at-large mix to go with a Q3 loss. The predictive metrics are strong relative to other bubble teams, but at this point the season finale against Duke feels like a must-win, so long as UNC doesn’t trip up before then.

Xavier – The Musketeers feel a lot like UNC, as they are now just 1-9 in Q1 contests with the lone win coming at Marquette. They have only one loss outside of Q1 and are 11-10 in non-Q4 games, and their last chance to move the needle comes on Saturday when Creighton visits the Cintas Center.

SMU – Another Q1 opportunity came and went for the Mustangs this weekend, as they lost at home to Clemson by 10, leaving then 0-5 in Q1 with four of the five losses by double digits. SMU’s metrics aren’t terrible, but 5-7 in the top two quadrants with no wins over projected tournament teams is going to be tough to overcome. They can ill afford a loss in their four remaining games before the ACC Tournament.

Conference Breakdown:

SEC (13): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Big Ten (10): Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin

Big 12 (8): Arizona, Baylor, BYU, Houston, Iowa St., Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia

ACC (4): Clemson, Duke, Louisville, Wake Forest

Big East (4): Connecticut, Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s

Mountain West (3): New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah State

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s

American: Memphis

Atlantic 10: VCU

America East: Bryant

Atlantic Sun: Lipscomb

Big Sky: Montana

Big South: High Point

Big West: UC San Diego

Colonial: Towson

Conference USA: Jacksonville State

Horizon: Robert Morris

Ivy: Yale

MAAC: Quinnipiac

MAC: Akron

MEAC: Norfolk State

Missouri Valley: Drake

Northeast: Central Connecticut State

Ohio Valley: SE Missouri State

Patriot: American

Southern: Chattanooga

Southland: McNeese

SWAC: Southern

Summit: Omaha

Sun Belt: James Madison

WAC: Utah Valley

Follow Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops and to receive an update whenever new brackets are posted.

Category: Bracketology

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